Newly launched HBO Now, currently only available in the United States and certain U.S. territories, may now have as many as a million subscribers, according to BTIG Research analyst Richard Greenfield.
The premium cable network's standalone streaming product, launched in early April and available for $15 per month, is currently only available on Apple platforms. Greenfield based his estimate on the sales ranking of the HBO Now app, which is averaging around 8th to 9th for the iPhone on the Apple App Store, and as high as 5th on the iPad rankings. More importantly, the ranking has remained steady well after the initial launch of the app, and after the initial 30 day free trial period is over, suggesting people are keeping their $15 subscriptions beyond the trial period.
“If we had seen a dramatic decline in month-over-month rankings after the second billing date (June 7th), we would have been concerned about churn — but that does not appear to be the case. HBO appears to be averaging between No. 8 to No. 9 in the iPhone top-grossing rank and around No. 5 in the iPad rank,” writes Greenfield.
While reaching one millions subs in such a short time is impressive, it pales in comparison to powerhouse Netflix's subscriber base, which is set to reach 70 million by the end of the year according to research by Digital TV Research. Netflix's advantage comes from being available in multiple markets worldwide, and it is in these international markets, including in Australia, that has seen the greatest growth in subscriptions. A recent Roy Morgan poll puts the number of Australia Netflix subscribers at over one million, although Digital TV Research's estimates puts this figure at a more conservative 350,000 by year's end.
Total Netflix subs outside of the largest market, the United States, is set to reach 26.3 million by the end of 2015, which represents a growth of 57% (9.6 million) from 2014. This allows Netflix subs to grow by 28% overall, up 15.4 million from 54.5 million to 69.9 million. The U.S. market is expected to reach 43.5 million subscribers at the same time.
“Netflix has developed even faster than we expected,” said Simon Murray, principal analyst with Digital TV Research. “Not only has the launch of Netflix boosted each market, but the anticipation of its launch has galvanized local players into action - creating a whirlwind of promotional activity.”
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